Gbenga Adeoye
Usually, when a car is to break down, certain signs will be seen by the owner and over time it gets worst if repairs is not carried out on time. Listed below are the dangerous signs for Nigeria:
Students who paid School fees and have been debited and now being deported because CBN could not fund the settlement. Manufacturers who largely depends on imported raw materials, are in serious need of Forex, but after their Naira had been taken by commercial banks and sent to CBN, for months, recipient are not getting their money.
Most LC Applications and Forex Bids are just mere papers resting on the table in banks. In a short while, if you need anything overseas, you may have to go get your dollar outside the banks and to avoid problem, you may have to carry your dollar Cash and enter the aircraft with it or else your money will not get to the recipient.
Brilliant young men and women are migrating, from Doctors to Nurses, IT guys and now Teachers will join them. Several professionals are migrating in large numbers. Very dangerous. Medical Treatment and in deed all those essential needs are no more beneficiary of Forex. What a terrible situation. CBN, where is our dollar? Nothing in Foreign reserve to settle obligations again?
What is most surprising is that the newly painted notes which is called newly redesigned Naira notes are scarce in banks. Customers still get paid with old notes even after December 15. Something is wrong somewhere. Different stories every day. Somehow, you almost want to put a bet to it that those news are untrue… Because how do you explain that Nigeria’s five years budget has gone to the hands of few guys… Even now I still doubt what I read here and there.
How did we get here? A big question yet without an immediate answer.
Solutions and Effects
Only what is produced in Nigeria will then be available. We must then work out on those Skills that will enable us to do almost everything here like China did. We may suffer for like a decade like Cuba and continue to ride old cars and so on but over time, things will improve. Billionaires in Naira may not even be able to import things through banks as Dollar will not be available in 2023. Dollar demand in the parallel market will go to the roof as almost every Importation will depend on black market. Dollar may go to N1,000 in January, later to N1,500.
Tax compliance drive will be stronger than ever before in 2023, but FIRS must be careful to avoid too much pressure on those paying already and rather work hard to widen the tax net.
Exception from tax based on less than N25 million threshold turnover will likely end as we may be losing a lot more from small companies in view of the fact that many big manufacturers will face tough times with difficulty in getting Forex to buy imported raw materials, and they may begin to close certain lines and relocate them to more stable forex arena in Africa.
Most Airlines will stop their Nigerian route as many have stopped already because they could not get Forex to take back their proceeds. It means a time will come that you will need foreign exchange to even buy ticket … As I heard, some airlines no longer accept Naira even now. Another boom for those in forex market. Dangerous, as dollar will keep rising as predicted in item 4 above.
Conclusion and recommendations
We need all professionals to sit together to solve our problems.
Like one of my elder brother said in Abeokuta: “When elections are contested and won, the government belongs to everybody.” and to that extent, I will recommend Government of National Unity from all the seven major parties – APC, PDP, LP, NNPP, SDP, ADC and APGA.
We all must join hands to find solution to our problems. 2023 requires patriotism and not political fights. Some guys that have been in government since 1999 have information about where our Dollars are kept and those who stole them. They even know where the accounts are.
We don’t need to spend money on litigations… All we need to do is to begin to take over those money and bring them back to our foreign reserve account, so we can at least have a new Nigeria. We understand that the kind of money in the hands of some people is so much that if they wage war against Nigeria, they may win.
Some people have enough money in dollars and pounds kept offshore that is enough to even rebuild all our schools and set up an airline that is a national Carrier like Nigeria Airways or Nigeria Air. Yes, we need all those dollars. There is no need for stressing our judges and prison budget …all we need to do is to get as much as we can get so as to kick the country going and get it back on track
Then we must speed up our development in the areas of roads, rail lines, hospitals, technical schools, university, ICT, reduction in numbers of subject in primary and secondary schools with focus on career paths. We must end lending rate of 35% and have interest rate to be a maximum of 15% if really want the real sector growth.
Divine intervention in my view also implied that men and women of integrity, character and intelligence will join hands together under God to work for the good of the country. Men who understand that they do not need billions to have food and raiment. Men who place value on hard work than pleasure. We must all join the next cabinet regardless of whoever wins the election and whichever party we belong to Yoruba, Hausa and Ibo and in deed all the tribes and ethnic nationalities must come together to deliver our country from the danger that is ahead.
God bless Nigeria and may God raise men that will fight for the country economically in 2023.
– Adeoye is a lawyer and a Chartered Accountant with PhD in Management Accounting. He also holds an M.Sc. in Banking and Finance. He can be reached: dga@gbengaadeoye.com
Last modified: December 31, 2022
